Big Oops
Whoa! Wait a durn minute! Hold your horses! It’s not every day that you learn that your entire professional career has been a parody of a travesty. Turns out that I have been spewing spurious advice all these decades. I have allowed, nay encouraged, students to find their path, explore options, learn and grow, consider possibilities, maybe even follow their star. Whereas what I should have been doing was telling all the students entrusted to my care to study mathematics at Duke University. Here’s why:
A recent study pointed out that Duke University math majors earn on average $297,029 per year. You gotta admit, $297,029 is a ton of moolah for a 23-year-old. Math majors from other schools earn less. Psychology majors from Duke don’t make nearly $297,029 the year after graduating. And psychology grads from other (“lesser” is such an unpleasant word but the tragically accurate one) institutions earn even less than that. Why would anybody study any subject other than mathematics? Why would anybody study mathematics anywhere other than Duke?
I have also been personally guilty of a similar brazen abnegation of good advice. Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs earns $64,000,000 a year. Even Jard Goff, the tenth highest paid QB, took home $53,000,000 last season. Why, oh why, have I devoted my life to advising students about where to go to college? Clearly I should have been an NFL quarterback. Helping students find their voice and speak their truth in the admissions essays was a horrific blunder. As a result of my bonehead career choice, I didn’t earn even $53,000,000 last year never mind $64,000,000. What a stupid decision. Fortunately I am going to make it right. As soon as I finish writing this essay, I am going to give Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross a call and tell him to hire me. Mr. Ross’s current quarterback, Malik Willis, apparently isn’t doing all that well and I’m willing to be the quarterback for only $20,000,000—several million dollars less that the $26,000,000 that Malik Willis earns.
What is wrong with suggesting that all your students should (can) study mathematics at Duke and that I should be the next Dolphis quarterback? Students who don’t study math at Duke aren’t majoring in history because they are choosing the lower-paying career path. They are also studying anthropology, performing arts, or special education because they can’t pronounce differential equations never mind perform well in the class.
Without humor or irony, do you see where a paunchy 70-year-old man who can’t throw a football all the way across his living room might be an unlikely choice for the next Dolphin QB? Do you understand why telling students to study math at Duke is the same equally silly and unlikely mistake?
You can’t know who comes out of your study unless and until you can define who went into it. Nobody ever woke up in the morning and said, “gee, I dunno, maybe I should study chemical engineering or possibly elementary education.” Everybody knows where the high paying jobs are. Indeed, of the 25 best compensated majors, 19 rely on a bunch of higher math. The top earners have degrees in chemical engineering or petroleum engineering or electrical engineering or biomedical engineering or industrial engineering, or actuarial science (read: insurance math.) The same everybody knows that psychology grads and elementary education grads and interior design grads and business administration grads typically earn less. And don’t get me started about kids who choose to study French Horn.
A threat to the validity of a study is starting with unequal groups. Yes, NFL quarterbacks earn more than college admissions counselors. Yes, Duke math kids earn more than Duke psychology kids or psychology kids at non-Duke institutions. Could it be argued that the journalists writing up this story for the New York Times don’t understand selection bias—a critical aspect of analyzing data and one that is taught at better undergraduate psychology programs at Duke University and everywhere else.
