Early Decision
There is a common perception that applying Early Decision gives an advantage to the student applicant. My essay this week will explain why Early Decision is not all it's cracked up to be.
Early Decision applicants are certainly advantageous to the college. Early decision is binding. A student who applies and is admitted ED, must attend.
The data are clear: Early Decision applicants are admitted at a higher percentage than Regular Decision applicants. Here is some data from highly competitive schools.
Brown University: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 14% Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 4%
Bowdoin College: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 13%. Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 6%
Columbia University: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 13%. Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 6%
Cornell University, NY: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 12%. Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 8%
Rice University, TX: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 17%. Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 7%
University of Pennsylvania, PA: Percentage of Early Decision applicants admitted: 12%. Percentage of Regular Decision applicants admitted: 8%
So Early Decision applicants have better chances of being admitted than Regular Decision kids. But does applying early decision improve the applicants chances?
Early Decision helps the universities because Early Decision improves Yield
Everyone understands admit ratio, the number of admitted students divided by the number of applicants.
Number of students who are accepted
Admit ratio = ----------------------------------------------
Total number of students who applied
For example if 1000 students apply and 100 of them are admitted, the Admit Ration is 100/1000 or ten percent.
The number of admitted students who show up is yield.
Number of students who accept the college
Yield Ratio = -----------------------------------------------------
Total number of students who accepted
For example, if a college admits 1000 students and 250 of those choose to attend, the yield ration is 250/1000 or 25%.
Colleges are all excited about yield. As well they should be. Because yield is about money. Lots of money.
Olde Bricke University admits 1000 students. 500 of them, 50%, show up. Olde Bricke University has a yield of 50%
Whereas, North Cornstalk State Drooling University admits 1000 students, but only 100 kids show up. North Cornstalk State Drooling University has a yield ratio of 10%
When Olde Bricke University borrows 100 million dollars to build a new student union, the bank knows the money will come back over the 30-year life of the loan because the university will still be in business. Olde Bricke gets a low interest rate. When North Cornstalk borrows 100 million dollars to build a new Student Union, the bank charges a higher interest rate. The loan is riskier. North Cornstalk may not still be operational. Look how many kids they have to admit just to fill their first-year class.
The difference between the low interest rate the bank charges Olde Bricke and the high interest rate at North Cornstalk is all about yield.
Early Decision makes students yield. It’s just that simple. Early Decision students yield at nearly 100%
Banks loan money to high yield institutions at a low interest rate. Banks charge money to low yield institutions at high interest rates.
That’s how Early Decision benefits colleges. Early Decision benefits students in that the kids find out whether they have been admitted by winter break of their senior year rather than waiting until April. Applying Early Decision doesn’t benefit students nearly as much as Early Decision benefits colleges. I’ll explain why after we consider the patient death rate at two hospitals.
Hospital A admits 1000 patients of whom 300 die. Hospital B admits 1000 patients of whom two die.
Which is the better hospital?
Most people say that Hospital B--where two people die--is better than Hospital A--where 300 people die--because two is smaller than 300.
But what if Hospital A admits patients who have been the victim of gun violence, serious car accidents, or horrible construction calamities? What if Hospital B works only with folks who want face lifts, tummy tucks, or breast implants?
I would expect more than just 300 of those unfortunate folks at Hospital A to die of their horrific injuries. I don’t know what happened to those two folks who died at Hospital B who just wanted their forehead wrinkles smoothed.
You can’t make any inference about who comes out of your study unless and until you know who came in to your study.
The people admitted to Hospital A and the people admitted to Hospital B are different.
Are the people applying Early Decision and Regular Decision also different? How might those populations be dissimilar?
Early Decision applicants—in addition to contributing to high yield—are also bringing money to the institution.
Early Decision applicants are more likely to come from families of means.
Early Decision applicants have to accept whatever price tag the university charges.
Regular decision applicants can compare financial offers from the many colleges to which they are admitted. Early Decision candidate have to pay.
One more example will make the alleged advantage of Early Decision clear.
How tall is your child? How tall is your child in inches? How tall is your child in centimeters? There is no new information in the two measurements. Your child’s height doesn’t change if it’s reported in inches or centimeters. Inches and centimeters give the same information. Five feet nine inches is the same as 1.75 centimeters.
Let’s say colleges are interested in knowing whether families have the means to pay full tuition.
(Colleges are VERY interested in knowing whether families can pay full tuition.)
Early decision applicants communicate that they are more likely than the general applicant pool to come from families of means. Colleges know very well whether familes are likely to be able to afford the tuition.
Consider the application of Muffy Alexandra Cornelius Abbott. Muffy’s list of activities on the Common Application include field hockey and sailing. Muffy attends a private day school where the yearly tuition tops $50,000. Muffy swims at the 13-million-dollar pool at her day school and lives in a home, fair market value, five million dollars. (A two-second search on Zillow confirms this price.) Muffy’s Common Application essay is about “helping those less fortunate by having a bake sale.”
If Muffy applies regular decision, does her address change? Is her parents’ home suddenly worth five thousand rather than five million dollars? Do her activities switch from field hockey and back stroke to working 20 hours a week at the Dollar Store and taking younger siblings to school on public transport?
Of course not.
Muffy’s height is the same measured in inches or centimeters and her family has the same net worth whether Muffy applies Early Decision or Regular Decision.
I’m not advising against applying Early Decision. It’s nice to know where your senior is going to college by December rather than waiting until the following April. The purpose of the essay this week is only to provide some background, help you determine what is best for your family.
If you are not comfortable being locked in at the price that comes back with an acceptance, you may wish to think long and hard about applying Early Decision.
